Crude Oil and Refined Products Market Review and Outlook 

The global market price of crude and refined petroleum products have been declining since the second window of February 2025. This has been largely attributed to the uncertainties in the global economy introduced by the US imposition of tariffs on some of its trade partners. The impact of the US-China announcement of retaliatory tariffs has been attested to by CITAC Africa, who espouse that the uncertainty in the tariff trade war will continue to cloud global economic growth and influence global crude and petroleum products demand. Both countries have, however, agreed this month that the U.S. will cut the extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April from 145% to 30% and China will reduce its duties on U.S. imports from 125% to 10% for the next 90 days.

Crude oil on the global market rose by about 3.95% in the window under review. However, it has fallen significantly by about 19.56% on a year-on-year basis and 11.45% since January 2025. Recent data shows that global inventories are rising, given the increased production by the OPEC+ nations and some countries such as the US and Canada.

Since June 2022, global market prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG have declined significantly by 53.62%, 53.58%, and 43.41% respectively. We anticipate global prices to continue to decline throughout the second quarter of the year.

FuFeX30 and Spot Rates

The Fufex30^[1] for the second selling window of May (1^st to 15^th June) is estimated at GHS13.0000/USD, while the applicable spot rate for cash sales is GHS11.5000/USD based on quotations received from oil financing commercial banks.

The BoG’s biweekly FX auction to BIDECs in the 16^th to 31^st May 2025 pricing window for the purchase of petroleum products was US$20 million, representing just 22% of BIDECs’ bid. Due to the recent appreciation of the cedi against the US dollar, the BOG interbank is currently selling at GHS10.40/USD. As the cedi continues to perform well against the dollar, we expect pump prices of petroleum products to decline and prices of goods at the market to also reduce for consumers.

The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.      

Ex-ref Price Effective 1^st to 15^th June 2025

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

Total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins within the 16^th to 31^st May 2024 selling window accounted for 25.33%, 23.66%, and 13.13% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively.

OMC Pricing Performance: 16^th to 31^st May 2025

The Ghana cedi, which was trading at bout GHS14.85/USD at the end of December 2024, is currently trading at about GHS11.00/USD by the commercial banks as of 27^th May 2025. This represents about 25.93% appreciation of the cedi. The Finance Minister, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, has assured stakeholders that this appreciation is not a fleeting development but the result of deliberate and strategic economic management. The appreciation of the cedi has been largely attributed to a mix of fiscal tightening, improved gold reserves, sound economic policies and external global factors, including the US–China tariff war. The BoG governor indicated the bank’s commitment to preserving the current stability of the cedi, saying that “the cedi’s days of excessive volatility against the dollar are coming to an end”.

Due to the flexibility of the petroleum products Price Build-Up in Ghana, every adjustment in the FX rate is usually reflected immediately at the pumps. As a result, consumers of petroleum products in Ghana have benefited from the recent appreciation of the cedi. Pump prices of petroleum products have declined significantly by about 12% since January. The decline in pump prices is partly attributed to the decline in global petroleum product prices, which is a result of the retaliatory tariff war between the US and China.

Owing to the appreciation of the cedi and the significant decline in pump prices, government officials and other stakeholders continue to call on traders and importers to reduce their prices to reflect the same. In adherence to this call, the GPRTU announced a 15% reduction in transport fares effective 24^th May 2025.

In the window under review, petrol declined by 4.10% due to the recent appreciation of the cedi and the decline in global crude prices.  The average price of Petrol at the pumps is down by 13.22% year to date and down by 10.22% on a year-on-year basis.

Average pump prices of diesel and LPG declined by 4.94% and 4.13%, respectively, in the period under review. On a year-to-date basis, both products are down by 11.04% and 6.10%, respectively. This significant decline has brought a major respite to consumers of petroleum products across the country.

Despite the rise in the global price of crude and refined petroleum products, the appreciation of the cedi is anticipated to result in a further decline in pump prices in the coming pricing window. It is expected that the cedi will not only be appreciated but also stabilise to allow business entities to plan properly. We expect that as transport fares have been revised downwards, prices of goods will decline proportionately.

The post Market Outlook – 1st to 15th June 2025 Pricing Window appeared first on CBOD Ghana.