Crude and Refined Products Price Review and Outlook    

Average global crude oil prices rose by approximately 2.03% to US$126.73/bbl between 27th September and 11th October, the benchmark period for the 16th to 31st October 2026 pricing window.

The increase was largely driven by heightened geopolitical tensions involving the ongoing US and Iran war and escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Although direct hostilities between the US and Iran remained relatively subdued during the period, escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and Riyadh International Airport, alongside attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, intensified supply concerns and exerted upward pressure on crude prices.

Crude prices also rose following production cuts in the US Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Isaias, which threatened the Florida coast. According to Reuters, US producers shut in approximately 1.5 mn bpd of crude oil and 1.3 bn cubic feet per day of natural gas, representing 72% and 59% of the Gulf’s respective production. Meanwhile, OPEC revised its 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 bpd, down from its January projection of approximately 1.2 mn bpd, citing prices hikes.

However, the US President’s announcement of an arrangement for Russia to supply about 300,000 MT of diesel to the US and global markets could ease supply pressures. Russia is also expected to supply a further 500,000 MT in November and another 1 mn MT subsequently, according to the said arrangement. However, Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure could constrain supply. Saudi Arabia is also expected to temporarily repurpose some domestic gas pipelines to facilitate crude shipments and boost exports. These developments could ease supply constraints and moderate crude prices towards the end of the year.

Despite the increase in crude oil prices, international refined product prices recorded mixed movements. Petrol, diesel and ATK prices declined by 3.93%, 6.69% and 1.72%, respectively, while LPG prices increased by 7.77%.

Consequently, the easing international refined product prices are expected to exert downward pressure on domestic petroleum prices during the 16th to 31st October 2026 pricing window, subject to the level of the cedi depreciation.

FuFeX30 and Spot Rates

The Fufex30^[1] for the first selling window of October (16^th to 31^st October 2026) is estimated at GHS11.9000/USD, based on quotations received from oil-financing commercial banks. Moreover, the applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS11.8000/USD.

The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.

Ex-ref Price Effective 16^th to 31^st October 2026

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

During the 1^st to 15^th October 2026 pricing window, taxes, levies and regulatory margins accounted for about 25.12%, 12.22% and 12.49% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel and LPG, respectively. However, following the recent surge in international petroleum product prices, particularly diesel, the Government suspended selected levies and margins equivalent to GH¢2/Ltr and the Energy Sector Shortfall and Debt Repayment Levy (GH¢1/Ltr) on diesel to mitigate the impact on consumers.

OMC Pricing Performance: 1^st to 15^th October 2026

The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the US–Iran war, has had significant implications for global petroleum markets and Ghana’s domestic fuel prices. The war, which intensified in late February, has resulted in severe attacks on energy infrastructure across several Gulf countries and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Amid the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war and sanctions on Russian exports, the Middle East remained a critical source of crude oil for major Asian economies, including China, India and Japan. Before the US–Iran war, the region supplied approximately one-third of global oil supply, equivalent to about 18 mn bpd, according to available data. However, the attacks on energy infrastructure during the conflict significantly disrupted these supplies.

Although crude oil exports have partially recovered through alternative pipelines in the UAE, which facilitate shipments via the Red Sea, and US efforts to facilitate tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, more than 2.3 mn bpd of the region’s refining capacity across approximately 20 damaged facilities remains offline.

The resulting supply constraints have contributed to sharp increases in refined petroleum product prices across global markets. In the US, diesel prices reportedly reached approximately US$6.52 per gallon, representing a 73% increase since the conflict began. Gasoline prices have similarly risen, reflecting tighter supplies and elevated crude oil prices.

Ghana has not been insulated from these developments, as rising international prices have translated into substantial increases in pump prices. This has prompted Government to introduce measures to cushion consumers, particularly after commercial transport operators threatened significant fare increases. During the review period, Government suspended the GHS1/Ltr Energy Sector Shortfall and Debt Repayment Levy on diesel to moderate the increase in fuel costs. The intervention specifically targeted diesel because of its significant price increases and critical role in commercial transport.

Despite this relief measure, pump prices have increased significantly since the conflict began. Petrol, diesel and LPG prices rose by about 52.82%, 48.49% and 31.69%, respectively, underscoring the extent to which international market disruptions have affected domestic fuel costs. Consequently, the Ghana Private Road Transport Union (GPRTU) increased transport fares by about 8%  on 26 September.

The average pump price of petrol across all retail outlets increased marginally by 0.53%, from GH¢16.9056/Ltr to GH¢16.9956/Ltr, driven largely by the surge in international petroleum product prices. On a year-on-year basis, petrol has gone up by 27.12% and about 49.99% from year to date.

The average pump price of diesel increased by 1.23%, maintaining diesel prices above GH¢18/Ltr. Although diesel pump prices were expected to surge significantly, government intervention in removing about GHs3 on the taxes and levies imposed on diesel. Moreover, government engagement with stakeholders and local refineries to intervene in moderating diesel prices to cushion consumers.

Pump prices are expected to decline in the coming window of 16th to 31st October 2026 reflecting the current declining trend in international prices.  However, recent pressure on the cedi has caused a slight depreciation, which is likely to impact the decline in pump prices.

[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward FX rate used as a benchmark rate by BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.