Crude and Refined Products Price Review and Outlook    

Global crude oil prices continue to surge following the resumption of military strikes between the US and Iran in recent weeks, after the negotiations for a truce between the two parties failed. The resurgence of the war significantly disrupted the global energy supply chain, leading to an unprecedented surge in global crude prices from March to June. Particularly, crude oil prices on the global market surged to a peak of about US$130/bbl during the height of the war in April. The parties subsequently agreed to a ceasefire to allow for negotiations to end the war. This pause in the military strikes led to a significant dip in crude prices in July to as low as US$70/bbl.

However, stalled negotiations and renewed hostilities between the two countries have continued to reignite tensions in the Middle East, resulting in crude prices rising again to average above US$100/bbl since the last window of August. Compared to January this year, crude prices are up by 68.34%.

Specifically, attacks of vessels at the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, coupled with the US blockade of Iran vessels transiting the Strait, have heightened the concerns over potential disruptions of the global energy supply chain. The US Central command reportedly struck about five (5) Iranian oil vessels in retaliation for attempted Iranian attacks on US warships.

Available data indicate that vessel traffic through the Strait has declined significantly, to fewer than 10 expected vessels per day, compared with about 100 vessels per day that transited the Strait prior to the war. Moreover, recent attacks on a Saudi Arabian pipeline used to divert crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea threaten to worsen the global supply shortage by about 4%.

Consequently, petrol, diesel, LPG, and ATK surged on the international market by 13.21%, 7.50%, 16.42%, and 10.88%, respectively. Diesel and petrol prices have more than doubled compared with prices in January. Due to the significant rise in global crude and refined petroleum product prices, pump prices in Ghana for the 16^th to 30^th September 2026 pricing window are expected to increase across all petroleum products.

FuFeX30 and Spot Rates

The Fufex30^[1] for the Second selling window of September (16^th to 30^th September 2026) is estimated at GHS11.7000/USD, based on quotations received from oil-financing commercial banks. Moreover, the applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS11.5000/USD. The cedi has depreciated by 1.74% compared with the previous window. This is therefore expected to further increase the pump prices, driving up the economic pressure on petroleum consumers.

The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.

Ex-ref Price Effective 16^th to 30^th September 2026

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

During the 1^st to 15^th September 2026 selling window, total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins accounted for approximately 27.25%, 13.04%, and 12.89% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively. Due to the recent surge in petroleum product prices, the government suspended some of the levies and margins (GHS2/Ltr) on diesel since the first window of August, to cushion consumers as commercial transport drivers threatened to increase transport fares by 30%.

OMC Pricing Performance: 1^st to 15^th September 2026

Pump prices of petroleum products have been on a significant surge since the war between the US and Iran began in March 2026. The escalation of hostilities between the two countries resulted in an unprecedented rise in crude oil and refined petroleum products prices in the global market. The war resulted in military attacks on significant energy infrastructure across the Gulf countries. Particularly, Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West oil pipeline system was struck by drone attacks, while the US Central Command reportedly struck several Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island and the port city of Jask.

These attacks in addition to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by both the US and Iran as well the attacks of vessels at the Red Sea by the Yemen Houthis has significantly disrupted the global supply chain. Due to the war, crude oil prices significantly increased from about US$68/bbl at the end of February to nearly US$130/bbl at the end of June. WTI and Brent Crude prices are currently above US$100/bbl primarily due to the war. This resulted in significant increases in pump prices from March to June, leading to government intervention to reduce petrol and diesel prices by GHS0.36 and GHS2.00 per litre, respectively, to cushion consumers in the month of June.

However, following a truce agreed in June to allow for negotiation to end the war, crude oil prices declined significantly, falling below US$70/bbl as concerns over supply disruptions eased. Consequently, pump prices declined substantially, giving the government the fiscal space to restore the petroleum sector levies that had previously been suspended to cushion consumers from the high pump prices.  

However, renewed military strikes between the US and Iran in recent weeks reignited concerns over the security of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East pushed international crude and refined petroleum product prices upward once again, resulting in an upward price adjustment among several OMCs in Ghana. Consequently, government intervention led to the removal of about GHS2/Ltr from the price of diesel from the first window of August to cushion consumers.

The average pump price of petrol rose by about 1.26% from GHS15.4767/Ltr to GHS15.6711/Ltr, due to the surge in international petroleum product prices in the previous window. Petrol prices remain elevated by 20.87% year-on-year and 38.30% compared to January 2026 prices.

The average pump price of diesel also edged marginally across all OMCs. On average, the pump price of diesel rose by 0.29% from GHS17.2100/Ltr to GHS17.2600/Ltr. Compared to the same period last year, diesel prices are 27.47% higher and remain 42.64% above the January 2026 levels.

Pump prices are projected to rise again across all OMCs in the upcoming window of 16^th to 30^th 2026. The anticipated increase is largely attributed to the sharp rise in crude and refined petroleum product prices due to the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward FX rate used as a benchmark rate by BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.