Crude and Refined Products Price Review and Outlook
Global crude oil prices declined by 19.73% during the period under review, representing a substantial 39.82% correction from the war-induced peak of USD130/bbl recorded at the height of the US/Israel–Iran conflict. Crude oil prices averaged USD78.12/bbl, approximately 4.96% above pre-conflict levels. The sharp decline was primarily driven by the ceasefire agreement, which significantly eased concerns over global supply disruptions. During the conflict, attacks on key energy infrastructure, including Iran’s South Pars gas field, Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oil field, and the UAE’s Shah gas field, coupled with the temporary disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, had heightened fears of supply shortages and pushed crude prices sharply higher.
Similar to the unprecedented surge in crude oil prices, petroleum product prices also surged significantly. The US/Israel war with Iran, which began in March, escalated significantly in the subsequent months, leading to several attacks on energy infrastructure, disrupting the global energy supply chain.
However, the truce agreement to end the war has brought significant restoration of the supply chain insecurity and volatility, and eased prices. In the window under review, petrol, diesel, LPG, and ATK fell by 6.47%, 14.70%, 15.62%, and 16.92%, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, petrol, diesel, and LPG are up by 24.85%, 24.72%, and 11.91%, respectively. Compared to the price of petroleum products at the peak of the war, petrol, diesel, and LPG have declined by 18.28%. 35.50% and 41.18% respectively, demonstrating the significant ease of prices after the ceasefire agreement.
OPEC has projected that global crude oil supply will increase by about 600,000 b/d in 2026, supported mainly by production growth in Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. On the demand side, OPEC expects consumption to grow by about 1.0 mb/d, driven by resilient economic activity in China (4.6%) and India (6.6%), increased air travel, stronger road transport demand, and a recovery in manufacturing activity.
For the domestic market, pump prices are expected to experience significant drops in the coming window of 1st to 15th July due to the easing of the global prices of petroleum products. This is expected to bring significant relief to consumers and transport users.
FuFeX30 and Spot Rates
The Fufex30[1] for the first selling window of July (1st to 15th July 2026) is estimated at GHS11.5000/USD, based on quotations received from oil-financing commercial banks. Moreover, the applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS11.3000/USD because of the recent appreciation of the cedi.
The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)
The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.
Ex-ref Price Effective 1st to 15th July 2026
Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins
During the 16th to 30th June 2026 selling window, total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins accounted for approximately 29.26%, 26.06%, and 13.14% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively. The government fully restored all the margins and levies on petrol and diesel that were previously suspended to provide some respite to consumers due to the unusual price surge.
OMC Pricing Performance: 16th to 30th June 2026
The international market price of crude oil rose in the second quarter of 2026 by an average of 60.01% from an average of USD70.13/bbl to an average of USD112.21/bbl. This unprecedented surge was a result of the geopolitical escalations between Israel/US and Iran from March to the middle of June and the significant contributions of the Middle East in the global energy supply chain, triggering a sharp rise in international crude oil prices.
The conflict also disrupted regional energy infrastructure, including refineries, storage facilities, and key export routes. Notably, the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates over 20% of global crude oil trade, magnified the concerns over supply security. Freight, insurance, and demurrage costs also increased significantly due to heightened risks to vessel movements through the Gulf region. Consequently, petroleum product prices in Ghana rose sharply despite the relative stability of the cedi within the period. Pump prices reached levels comparable to those recorded in late 2023 during the period of severe currency depreciation. Diesel prices, in particular, rose to about GHS18/Ltr at some retail outlets, increasing transportation costs and prompting concerns among transport operators, with some unions threatening to increase fares. On average, petrol, diesel, and LPG are up by 25.80%, 30.80%, and 18.70%, respectively, compared to prices in Quarter 1.
Following the sharp increase in pump prices, the government suspended selected margins and levies on petrol and diesel for one month, effective from the second pricing window of April, to mitigate the impact on consumers. The intervention was intended to cushion consumers against the significant rise in fuel prices, as adopted by several other countries. However, the government restored all the margins and levies in the second selling window of June after international prices began to decline.
In the window under review, petrol pump prices decline 5.01%, mainly due to the decline in international prices and the appreciation of the cedi in the second week of June. On a year-to-date basis, pump prices have cumulatively increased by about 28.77% and by 26.80% on a year-on-year basis, reflecting the sustained impact of the war on the downstream petroleum market in Ghana.
Diesel pump prices decreased by 1.38% due to the decline in international market prices and the appreciation of the cedi in the second window of June. On a year-to-date basis, diesel prices have gone up by 34.80% due to the hostilities between the US and Iran. In the coming window of 1st to 15th July 2026, pump prices are expected to decline significantly due to the recent fall in international prices as a result of the ceasefire agreement signed between the US and Iran to halt the hostilities.
[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward fx rate used as a benchmark rate for BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.