Crude and Refined Products Price Review and Outlook
Global crude oil prices have fallen below USD100/bbl for the first time since the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran began in March, following a fragile ceasefire agreement. Prior to the truce, escalating hostilities and retaliatory attacks across the Gulf region pushed crude prices to about USD130/bbl, the highest level since the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict.
The conflict disrupted global energy markets through the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on key energy infrastructure, including Iran’s South Pars gas field, Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oil field, and the UAE’s Shah gas field. These developments heightened concerns over global supply security and significantly increased market volatility. As a result, average crude oil prices rose by about 60% during the second quarter, increasing from USD70.13/bbl in the first quarter to USD112.21/bbl by the end of the period. Although prices have since moderated, the outlook remains uncertain as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to global oil supply and pricing.
Global oil market dynamics remain uncertain despite the recent easing in prices. OPEC projects global crude oil supply to increase by about 600,000 b/d in 2026, supported mainly by production growth in Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. On the demand side, OPEC expects consumption to grow by about 1.0 mb/d, driven by resilient economic activity in China (4.6%) and India (6.6%), increased air travel, stronger road transport demand, and a recovery in manufacturing activity. Gasoline and jet fuel are expected to account for the bulk of incremental demand growth.
However, market sentiment remains cautious as the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a contraction in global oil demand, citing the impact of elevated prices and supply-side disruptions. The contrasting outlooks underscore the uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of energy demand.
Meanwhile, the recent decline in crude oil prices has translated into lower refined petroleum product prices on the international market. In the window review, petrol, diesel, LPG, and ATK prices declined by 15.21%, 10.17%, 19.94%, and 12.59%, respectively.
For the domestic market, the combined impact of lower international prices and the appreciation of the cedi is expected to lower ex-pump prices. Consequently, consumers are likely to experience significant reductions in petrol, diesel, and LPG prices in the pricing window of 16th to 30th June 2026.
FuFeX30 and Spot Rates
The Fufex30[1] for the second selling window of June (16th to 30th June 2026) is estimated at GHS11.7000/USD, based on quotations received from oil-financing commercial banks. Moreover, the applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS11.5000/USD because of the recent appreciation of the cedi. The cedi is currently appreciating due to the significant intervention by the Bank of Ghana in the FX market to increase FX supply for petroleum products importation.
The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)
The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.
Ex-ref Price Effective 16th to 30th June 2026
Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins
During the 1st to 15th June 2026 selling window, total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins accounted for approximately 25.46%, 25.70%, and 13.17% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively. This was partly due to the government’s suspension of some margins and levies on diesel by about GHS1.07/Ltr in the window under review to provide relief for consumers and transporters.
OMC Pricing Performance: 1st to 15th June 2026
The second quarter of 2026 witnessed significant fuel price increases following the outbreak of the war between the US/Israel, and Iran at the beginning of the quarter. Given the Middle East’s critical role in global energy supply, the escalation of hostilities triggered a sharp rise in international crude oil prices. Crude oil surged from an average of about USD67/bbl in February to a peak of about USD130/bbl during the height of the conflict, the highest level recorded since the onset of the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022. Crude oil prices have currently declined below USD100/bbl due to the ongoing ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran.
The conflict also disrupted regional energy infrastructure, including refineries, storage facilities, and key export routes. Notably, the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates over 20% of global crude oil trade, magnified the concerns over supply security. Freight, insurance, and demurrage costs also increased significantly due to heightened risks to vessel movements through the Gulf region.
Consequently, petroleum product prices in Ghana rose sharply despite the relative stability of the cedi within the period. Pump prices reached levels comparable to those recorded in late 2023 during the period of severe currency depreciation. Diesel prices, in particular, rose to about GHS18/Ltr at some retail outlets, increasing transportation costs and prompting concerns among transport operators, with some unions threatening to increase fares.
Following the sharp increase in pump prices, the government suspended selected margins and levies on petrol and diesel for one month, effective from the second pricing window of April, to mitigate the impact on consumers. After the period, all suspended margins on petrol were fully reinstated, while only a partial restoration was applied to diesel. The intervention was intended to cushion consumers against the significant rise in fuel prices as adopted by several countries, including Germany, Italy, Poland, and Hungary, to alleviate the burden of high fuel costs on households and businesses.
In the window under review, petrol pump prices rose by 3.95%, mainly due to the increase in international prices and the sharp depreciation of the cedi in the first week of June. On a year-to-date basis, pump prices have cumulatively increased by about 35.56% and by 26.20% on a year-on-year basis, reflecting the sustained impact of the war on the downstream petroleum market in Ghana.
Diesel pump prices increased marginally by 0.02% due to the recent pressure on the cedi despite the slump in diesel prices on the international market. On a year-to-date basis, diesel prices have gone up by 35.37% despite the government’s intervention. In the coming window of 16th to 30th June 2026, pump prices are expected to decline significantly due to the combined impact of the decline in international prices and the significant appreciation of the cedi in the second week of June.
[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward fx rate used as a benchmark rate for BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.