Crude and Refined Products Price Review and Outlook    

Crude oil prices on the global market remain elevated amid concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East, as ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran continue to stall, heightening uncertainty over the region’s oil supply and the broader geopolitical dynamics involving several countries. Renewed escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran in July reignited geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, resulting in a sharp elevation in crude oil prices. The breach of the ceasefire agreement reached in late June reversed the gains that were made when crude oil prices fell to as low as US$70/bbl following the ceasefire agreement. The breach of the ceasefire has further resulted in crude oil prices rising to close to US$100/bbl.

Although the exchange of strikes between the two countries has ceased amid ongoing negotiations for another ceasefire agreement, investors remain doubtful about the credibility and durability of any agreement reached between the parties. Moreover, demands by both parties seem to result in the negotiations hitting a deadlock. This has been further reinforced by Iran’s insistence on keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed until the United States agrees to provide compensation for damages sustained during the war and to bring the conflict to an end.

The US President responded to Iran’s demands for a peace deal by setting out his own conditions, including a demand that Iran pay compensation for people killed in wars, attacks, and protests. The continuous closure of the Strait has significant implications for global crude supply given its strategic importance in the global flow of crude, transiting about 20% of global crude. Available data shows that the number of vessels transiting the Strait has reduced dramatically from between 125 and 140 to about 10 vessels daily. As a result, ⁠the ​EIA expects significant disruptions to Middle East crude supplies to persist ​through the end of 2027. The EIA also projects Brent crude and WTI crude oil prices to average US$86.81 and US$80.88 per barrel, respectively, in 2026.

The conflict also spilled over into the Red Sea, where renewed attacks on Saudi Arabian oil vessels by Yemen’s Houthi forces heightened security concerns along another critical global trade route, further increasing freight costs and supply chain uncertainties.

Consequently, crude oil and diesel prices in the international market rose by 2.15% and 2.78% respectively, while petrol, LPG, and ATK declined by 5.29%, 2.58%, and 1.32% respectively. While crude oil prices have risen by about 46% since January, petrol and diesel have risen by about 66.92% and 101.02% respectively since January.

Accordingly, pump prices in Ghana for the 16th to 31st August 2026 pricing window are expected to increase slightly for diesel and reduce marginally for petrol, driven by higher international prices of diesel and the slight depreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar during the review period.

 FuFeX30 and Spot Rates

The Fufex30^[1] for the second selling window of August (16^th to 31^st August 2026) is estimated at GHS11.9000/USD, based on quotations received from oil-financing commercial banks. Moreover, the applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS11.8000/USD.

The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.

Ex-ref Price Effective 16^th to 31^st August 2026

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

During the 1^st to 15^th August 2026 selling window, total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins accounted for approximately 30.09%, 25.36%, and 13.63% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively. Following the recent increase in pump prices, the Government reduced its margins on diesel by GHS2/Ltr. Against this backdrop, stakeholders are increasingly calling on the Government to further suspend selected levies to cushion consumers.

OMC Pricing Performance: 1^st to 15^th August 2026

Pump prices increased significantly during the pricing window following the renewed escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran in the second pricing window of July. The resulting increase in international petroleum product prices exerted significant upward pressure on domestic pump prices, with some OMCs selling diesel at above GHS19/Ltr before the government intervened to reduce diesel prices by GHS2/Ltr.

Generally, the conflict, which escalated earlier in the year, disrupted global energy markets and significantly increased crude oil prices from about US$68/bbl to nearly US$130/bbl due to attacks on critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf region and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This resulted in pump prices increasing significantly from March to June, leading to government intervention to reduce petrol and diesel prices by GHS0.36 and GHs2 per liter, respectively, to cushion consumers.

Following the ceasefire reached in late June, international crude oil prices declined sharply, falling below US$70/bbl as concerns over supply disruptions eased and confidence returned to the market. Consequently, pump prices were reduced, providing the government with the fiscal space to restore the petroleum sector levies that had previously been suspended to cushion consumers from the sharp increase in fuel prices.

However, renewed military exchanges between the US and Iran during the second half of July reignited concerns over the security of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategic oil transit routes. The renewed tensions pushed international crude and refined petroleum product prices upward, prompting several Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) in Ghana to adjust pump prices during the pricing window. The government had to once again intervene by directing the finance ministry to suspend GHS2 of the levies on each liter of diesel to cushion consumers and commercial transport drivers who had threatened a 30% transport fare increment.

Consequently, the average pump price of petrol increased by 10.54% to GHS15.6856/Ltr, driven primarily by higher international petroleum prices and the marginal depreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar during the period. On a year-on-year basis, petrol prices are 28.80% higher and remain 38.43% above their January 2026 levels.

Similarly, the average pump price of diesel increased by 7.21% to GHS19.7580/Ltr, from GHS16.7580/Ltr recorded in the previous pricing window, however, it fell to about GHS17.7580 due to the GHS2/Ltr reduction The increase reflected rising international diesel prices. Compared to the same period last year, diesel prices are 22.24% higher and remain 38.50% above their January 2026 levels.

In the coming window of 16^th to 31^st August 2026, petrol pump prices are expected to decrease slightly while diesel pump prices are expected to rise slightly across several OMCs. The anticipated changes are primarily attributable to the movement in international crude oil and refined petroleum product prices, compounded by the weak performance of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar.

[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward FX rate used as a benchmark rate for BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.