Crude Oil and Refined Products Market Review and Outlook 

The global market price of crude has been on a downward trajectory since third Quarter three (Q3) 2024. Crude oil prices in the global market have declined by about 10.81% from Q1 2025 to Q2. Specifically, crude oil declined by about 9.36% since January 2025. Moreover, refined petroleum products including petrol, diesel, and kerosene have been on a sharp decline since the second window of February 2025. This downward trajectory is largely attributed to the uncertainties in the global economy introduced by the US – China tariff war. Market players raise concerns that the retaliatory tariff war could continue to suppress global economic growth and influence global crude and petroleum products demand.  Although both countries agreed in the first week of June not to extend the implementation of the tariffs to a period of 90 days, the uncertainties on the tariff announcement continue to adversely impact global trade and economic growth.

In addition to the impact of the retaliatory tariff, data also shows that global inventories are rising given the increase production by the OPEC+ nations and some countries such as the US and Canada. These notwithstanding global prices have begun to surge due to the Isreal-Iran war that began in the second week of June. Reports indicates that Israel has shut down natural gas production in its biggest field, stopping supplies to Egypt and has also ordered the halt of the offshore Leviathan field operated by Chevron Corp. due to security concerns. This has resulted in Egypt increasing its diesel demand for power production. According to Reuters, Israel’s attacks on Iran led to oil prices jumping by as much as 13% on Friday 13^th June, to their highest since January on the expectation of a major distruption in oil supply  by Iran that produces about 3.3 million bpd and exports about 2 million bpd.

Since June 2022, global market prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG have declined significantly by 53.62%, 53.58%, and 43.41%, respectively. However, we anticipate global prices to spike until the current Israel/Iran war enters a truce.  

FuFeX30 and Spot Rates

The Fufex30^[1] for the second selling window of June (16^th to 30^th June) is estimated at GHS11.0000/USD, while the applicable spot rate for cash sales is GHS10.5000/USD based on quotations received from oil financing commercial banks.

The BoG’s biweekly FX auction to BIDECs in the 16^th to 30^th June 2025 pricing window for the purchase of petroleum products was US$20 million, representing just 22% of BIDECs’ bid. Due to the recent appreciation of the cedi against the US dollar, the BOG interbank is currently selling at GHS10.40/USD. As the cedi continues to perform well against the dollar, we expect pump prices of petroleum products to decline and prices of goods at the markets to also reduce accordingly for consumers.

The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.

Ex-ref Price Effective 16^th to 30^th June 2025

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

Total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins within the 1^st to 15^th June 2024 selling window accounted for 27.41%, 25.60%, and 14.11% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively.

OMC Pricing Performance: 1^st to 15^th June 2025

The Ghana cedi which was trading at bout GHS14.85/USD at end of December 2024 is currently trading at about GHS10.40/USD by the commercial banks as at 13^th June 2025. This represents about 30% appreciation of the cedi. The Finance Minister, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, has assured stakeholders that this appreciation is not a fleeting development but the result of deliberate and strategic economic management. The appreciation of the cedi has been largely attributed to a mix of fiscal tightening, improved gold reserves, sound economic policies and external global factors including the US – China tariff war. The BoG governor indicated the bank’s commitment to preserving the current stability of the cedi, saying that, “the cedi’s days of excessive volatility against the dollar are coming to an end”.

Due to the flexibility of the petroleum products Price Build-Up in Ghana, every adjustment in the FX rate is usually reflected immediately at the pumps. As a result, consumers of petroleum products in Ghana have clearly benefited from the recent appreciation of the cedi. Pump prices of petroleum products have declined significantly by about 20% since January. The decline in pump prices is partly attributed to the decline in global petroleum products prices attributed to the retaliatory tariffs war between the US and China.

Owing to the appreciation of the cedi and the significant decline in pump prices, government officials and other stakeholders continue to call on traders and importers to reduce their prices to reflect same.

In the window under review, petrol declined by 7.71% due to the recent appreciation of the cedi and the decline in global crude prices.  Average price of Petrol at the pumps are down by 18.18% year to date and down by 15.30% on a year-on-year basis.

Average pump prices of diesel and LPG declined by 7.58% and 6.97%, respectively in the period under review. On a year-to-date basis, both products are down by 16.86% and 12.28%, respectively. This significant decline has brought major respite to consumers of petroleum products across the country.

The current Israel-Iran war and the resultant spike in crude prices in the global market is expected to impact pump prices in Ghana in the coming pricing window. As government has decided to postpone the implementation of the GHS1/Ltr levy on petroleum products to a later date, this will grant consumers some relief as the global events are expected to raise pump prices in the coming window.

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