Crude and Refined Products Price Review and Outlook
The renewed escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran during the second half of July reignited geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reversing the sharp decline in crude oil prices witnessed earlier in the month. Following the ceasefire reached in late June, Brent crude had fallen below US$70/bbl for the first time since the outbreak of hostilities involving the US, Israel and Iran in early March, as concerns over supply disruptions eased and market sentiment improved. During the height of the conflict, crude oil prices had surged from about US$65/bbl to nearly US$130/bbl, significantly disrupting global energy markets and supply chains.
The initial conflict resulted in attacks on critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf region, including Iran’s South Pars gas field, Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oil field and the UAE’s Shah gas field, heightening concerns over regional oil and gas production and exports. The renewed military escalation in July further intensified supply risks, with both countries exchanging strikes while maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorated. Iran imposed tighter controls on vessel movements through the Strait, while the United States intensified military operations and restrictions on Iranian oil shipments. These developments significantly reduced tanker traffic through the waterway, increased war-risk insurance premiums and raised concerns over the uninterrupted flow of crude oil and petroleum products to international markets.
The conflict also spilled over into the Red Sea, where renewed attacks on commercial shipping by Yemen’s Houthi forces heightened security concerns along another critical global trade route, further increasing freight costs and supply chain uncertainties.
Consequently, international refined petroleum prices increased during the pricing window, with petrol, diesel, LPG and ATK increasing by 12.58%, 24.84%, 12.24% and 26.52%, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, petrol, diesel and LPG are up by 52.67%, 67.17%, and 34.03% respectively. Compared to prices at the beginning of the year, petrol, diesel and LPG prices are up by 76.25%, 95.60%, and 28.76% respectively.
Accordingly, pump prices in Ghana for the 1st to 15th August 2026 pricing window are expected to increase significantly, driven by higher international petroleum prices and the depreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar during the review period.
FuFeX30 and Spot Rates
The Fufex30[1] for the first selling window of August (1st to 15th August 2026) is estimated at GHS11.9000/USD, based on quotations received from oil-financing commercial banks. Moreover, the applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS11.8000/USD.
The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)
The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.
Ex-ref Price Effective 1st to 15 August 2026
Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins
During the 16th to 31st July 2026 selling window, total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins accounted for approximately 30.09%, 25.36%, and 13.63% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively. Government has fully restored the levies and margins that were suspended to provide relief to consumers. However, following the recent increase in pump prices stakeholders are beginning to call on government to again suspend the levies to cushion consumers.
OMC Pricing Performance: 16th to 31st 2026
Pump prices resumed an upward trajectory during the 16th to 31st July 2026 pricing window, reflecting renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. The conflict, which escalated earlier in the year, disrupted global energy markets and significantly increased crude oil prices. During the height of the hostilities, Brent crude surged from about US$68/bbl to nearly US$130/bbl, its highest level since the Russia–Ukraine energy crisis in 2022. Attacks on critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf region, coupled with heightened security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, led to increased freight charges, war-risk insurance premiums and demurrage costs, all of which contributed to higher petroleum product prices globally.
Following the ceasefire reached in late June, international crude oil prices declined sharply, falling below US$70/bbl as concerns over supply disruptions eased and confidence returned to the market. The restoration of global crude flows resulted in lower international petroleum product prices, enabling domestic pump prices to decline for three consecutive pricing windows. The sustained reduction in pump prices also provided government with the fiscal space to restore the petroleum sector levies that had previously been suspended to cushion consumers from the sharp increase in fuel prices.
Freight, insurance and demurrage costs also increased markedly as security risks disrupted tanker movements through the Gulf region. These additional costs further intensified upward pressure on pump prices. In response, Government temporarily suspended selected taxes, levies and margins in the petroleum price build-up to cushion consumers from the sharp increase in fuel prices.
However, renewed military exchanges between the US and Iran during the second half of July reignited concerns over the security of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategic oil transit routes. The renewed tensions pushed international crude and refined petroleum product prices upward, prompting several Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) in Ghana to adjust pump prices during the pricing window.
Consequently, the average pump price of petrol increased by 5.29% to GHS14.1900/Ltr, driven primarily by higher international petroleum prices and the marginal depreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar during the period. On a year-on-year basis, petrol prices are 15.69% higher and remain 25.23% above their January 2026 levels.
Similarly, the average pump price of diesel increased by 7.21% to GHS16.7580/Litre, from GHS15.6310/Ltr recorded in the previous pricing window. The increase reflected rising international diesel prices and the relative weakening of the cedi. Compared to the same period last year, diesel prices are 22.24% higher and remain 38.50% above their January 2026 levels.
In the coming window of 1st to 15th August 2026, pump prices are expected to increase significantly across all OMCs. The anticipated increases are primarily attributable to the sharp rise in international crude oil and refined petroleum product prices following the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, compounded by the depreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar.
[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward fx rate used as a benchmark rate for BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.