Crude and Refined Products Price Review and Outlook
Crude and Refined Products Price Review and Outlook
Although international crude oil prices fell below USD70/bbl for the first time since the escalation of hostilities involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in early March, prices remained elevated relative to pre-conflict levels. The sharp decline in crude prices followed the ceasefire agreement reached in early July, which eased geopolitical tensions and improved market sentiment. During the conflict, crude oil prices surged from about USD65/bbl to nearly USD130/bbl, significantly disrupting global energy markets and supply chains.
The escalation of the conflict also resulted in attacks on critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf region, tightening crude oil production and transportation. Key energy facilities, including Iran’s South Pars gas field, Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oil field, and the UAE’s Shah gas field, reportedly sustained operational disruptions. In addition, Iran’s temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global crude oil and petroleum liquids transit, severely disrupted tanker movements, increased freight and insurance costs, and heightened supply risks. These developments largely contributed to the unprecedented surge in global crude oil prices during the period.
However, the first week of July witnessed a sharp decline in global crude oil prices following the ceasefire agreement reached between the parties, although security analysts cautioned that the truce remained fragile. Crude prices fell to about USD68/bbl, their lowest level since the conflict began, largely due to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of normal tanker movements. The decline provided significant relief to global energy markets by easing supply concerns and moderating freight and insurance costs.
Looking ahead, OPEC projects global crude oil supply to increase by about 600,000 b/d in 2026, supported mainly by production growth in Brazil, the United States, Canada, and Argentina. On the demand side, global oil consumption is projected to grow by about 1.0 mb/d, driven by resilient economic growth in Asia, increased air travel, stronger road transport activity, and a recovery in manufacturing, with gasoline and jet fuel accounting for most of the incremental demand.
However, renewed military strikes involving the United States and Iran during the second week of July threatened the sustainability of the ceasefire, triggering a rebound in crude oil prices amid renewed concerns over supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Consequently, international refined petroleum prices also increased during the pricing window, with petrol and diesel rising by 4.96% and 8.14%, respectively. Accordingly, pump prices in the 16th to 31st July 2026 pricing window are expected to increase marginally, reflecting the recent uptick in international petroleum prices.
FuFeX30 and Spot Rates
The Fufex30[1] for the second selling window of July (16th to 31st July 2026) is estimated at GHS11.7500/USD, based on quotations received from oil-financing commercial banks. Moreover, the applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS11.5500/USD.
The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)
The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.
Ex-ref Price Effective 16th to 31st July 2026
Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins
During the 1st to 15th July 2026 selling window, total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins accounted for approximately 31.68%, 27.19%, and 13.12% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively. This was partly due to the government’s suspension of some margins and levies on diesel by about GHS1.07/Ltr in the window under review to provide relief for consumers and transporters.
OMC Pricing Performance: 1st to 15th July 2026
Pump prices reached elevated levels during the second quarter of 2026, principally due to the escalation of hostilities involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The conflict resulted in attacks on critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf region and heightened concerns over the security of crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Given the Middle East’s strategic importance to the global energy supply chain, these developments triggered a sharp surge in international crude oil prices, with Brent briefly approaching USD130/bbl, its highest level since the Russia–Ukraine energy crisis in 2022.
Consequently, domestic pump prices rose significantly despite the relative stability of the Ghana cedi during the period. Retail prices reached levels comparable to those recorded in late 2023, when the cedi experienced sharp depreciation. Diesel prices, in particular, climbed to about GHS18/Ltr at some retail outlets, increasing transportation costs and prompting concerns among transport operators, with some unions threatening fare adjustments.
Freight, insurance and demurrage costs also increased markedly as security risks disrupted tanker movements through the Gulf region. These additional costs further intensified upward pressure on pump prices. In response, Government temporarily suspended selected taxes, levies and margins in the petroleum price build-up to cushion consumers from the sharp increase in fuel prices.
Following the ceasefire agreement reached in early July, international petroleum prices began to moderate as geopolitical tensions eased and tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz resumed.
Consequently, domestic pump prices have, on average, declined for the third consecutive pricing window, providing some relief to consumers despite prices remaining above pre-conflict levels.
In the pricing window under review, petrol pump prices declined by 7.73%, largely driven by the fall in international prices following the ceasefire agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Petrol pump prices had risen to as high as GHS15.36/Ltr at the height of the war. Despite the recent decline, petrol pump prices remain 16.87% higher on a year-on-year basis and 18.94% above the beginning of the year, reflecting the cumulative impact of the earlier surge in international oil prices during the conflict.
Diesel pump prices also declined by about 4.17% after rising to about GHS18/Ltr during the first pricing window of June. The decline was largely driven by lower international petroleum prices and the relative stability of the Ghana cedi in recent weeks. On a year-on-year basis, diesel pump prices remain 19.86% higher, while year-to-date they have increased by 29.18%.
In the upcoming pricing window of 16th to 31st July 2026, pump prices are expected to increase marginally following the recent uptick in international petroleum prices amid renewed geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran, which have renewed concerns over the security of oil shipments through the Gulf region.
[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward fx rate used as a benchmark rate for BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.